Industrial Securities Zhang Yidong: Hong Kong stocks spring will arrive actively layout the opportunity of revaluation Focus on four main lines
Industrial Securities Zhang Yidong for the 2023 Hong Kong stock investment strategy, said to focus on the certainty of fundamental recovery, and actively layout the opportunity of revaluation. Focus on four main lines, one is the Internet. Benefit from Reposen and "weak recovery" economic background of online consumption recovery, in particular, local life, advertising, e-commerce and other sub-segments of the recovery, benefiting from the improvement of Internet regulatory policy brought about by the recovery of the game, cloud and other industries, the Internet 2023 is expected to valuation and performance double upgrade. Second, the structural market of consumption and services, benefiting from the optimization of the epidemic prevention and control policy and the recovery of consumption. Third, the domestic housing stocks and real estate industry chain, finance and other high dividend value stock leaders, benefiting from the economic recovery and the construction of valuation system with Chinese characteristics, especially high-quality central enterprises state-owned enterprises Hong Kong stocks will be expected to revaluation. Fourth, the advanced manufacturing industry looking for alpha - biomedicine, technology hardware, new energy vehicles, etc.
Zhang Yidong said that since November 2022, after the coldest winter in the past two years, the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks as well as risk appetite has improved significantly, and the spring of Hong Kong stocks has come again. As of December 30, 2022, the Hang Seng Index rebounded from its low point by a maximum of 35.5%, and the valuation PE-TTM improved from 7.2 to 9.7, at the 42.7% quartile level since 2011; the risk premium dropped from the extreme point of 9.7% to 6.4%, at the 24.8% quartile level since 2011. Shorting turnover ratio fell back to near 14% from a high of 24.5%. But the improvement in fundamental expectations is not obvious.
By industry, the financial sector: as of December 30, 2022, the Hang Seng Composite Index financial sector PE-TTM is 5.8 times and PB is 0.5 times, respectively, at 12.5% and 8.3% interquartile levels since 2015.
Real estate industry: private real estate enterprises thunderstorm, the industry is reborn in the fire, real estate industry valuation differentiation. Storm private real estate enterprises market is difficult to repair, some high-quality private real estate enterprises in the policy support valuation has been repaired, but still not back to the previous level, and smooth financing, sustainable land acquisition of the central state-owned enterprises real estate valuation return to normal levels, long-term more will further benefit from the optimization of the industry pattern.
Consumer industry: the consumer industry valuation repair faster. As of December 30, 2022, non-essential consumption 2023 forecast EPS corresponding to the PE of 19.5 times, in 2019 since the forecast PE historical range ([10.5x , 27.3x]) of 59.6% quartile level; essential consumption PE of 15.4 times, in 2019 since the forecast PE historical range ([11.8x , 21.7x]) at the 33.1% interquartile level.
TMT industry: By the end of 2022, many factors suppressing TMT valuation can be substantially alleviated, with the basic elimination of Chinese stock delisting concerns, optimization of epidemic prevention and control, strengthening of economic recovery expectations, industry regulation entering a new normal, etc. As of December 30, 2022, the PE corresponding to 2023 forecast EPS is 19.5x, which is at the 17.3% quartile level of the historical range of forecast PE since 2019 ([13.3x , 34.2x]).
According to Zhang Yidong, the domestic, sick tree before the spring, Reposen, stable growth policies will help to improve risk appetite. In January, the peak of this round of the epidemic in China will end, with the policy combination of Reopen and the liberalization of domestic and foreign travel, superimposed on the Spring Festival holiday, social sentiment will hopefully be negative, planning for life after the epidemic.
New year new weather, stable growth and stable employment policy mix will continue, thus implementing the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and work deployment. There are three key aspects: First, with the optimal adjustment of the epidemic prevention and control, the short term to successfully pass the epidemic period, to ensure a smooth transition; Second, in 2023 to restore and expand consumption in a priority position, according to the deployment of the meeting, the expansion of domestic demand priority focus on housing improvement, new energy vehicles, elderly services and driven government investment, "14 five "major projects on the ground; third, the implementation of the 20th Congress on the integration of development and security, promote high-quality development deployment, focus on industrial safety development and scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement.
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