Financial Futures, Metal Futures and Agricultural Futures Morning Commentary

By    16 Jun,2022

Stock index: financial inflows stock index wait and see.

The domestic stock market has recently seen a rapid inflow of funds into the financial sector, with securities and insurance gaining significant capital traction. At the domestic market level, the inflow of funds in the financial sector tends to show a rapid pulse of the market, combined with the current economic conditions, securities and insurance performance is less likely to explode. More lies in the rotation of capital inflows, sustainability is doubtful, the stock index continue to wait and see.

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Treasury bonds: the Federal Reserve rate hike Treasury bonds more than a single temporary departure.

Domestic stabilization of economic policy level, the State Assembly said that both decisively increase vigorously, stable economic policy should be out, and not over-issued currency, not overdraft future. This means that the short-term central bank in monetary investment measures to maintain the same possibility. With the stabilization of economic policies to land currency demand back up, short-term interest rates back up is more likely. On the external front, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points, Powell's speech followed by the possibility of a rate hike. In the short term or check and balance domestic monetary policy. Short-term treasury bonds or high level back down, treasury bonds more than single temporarily away.

Precious metals: the Federal Reserve rate hike accelerated gold and silver below the support solid.

Wednesday evening, COMEX gold futures rose 0.3% to $ 1819.6 / ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 2.2% to $ 21.420 / ounce. In the domestic overnight market, the main contract of Shanghai gold 2208 was at 395.58 yuan/gram, up 0.24%; the main contract of Shanghai silver 2212 was at 4706 yuan/kg, up 1.66%. The Fed's June meeting hiked rates again to 75bp, with the policy rate target range rising to 1.5-1.75%, and the median dot plot shows that there will be about 175-200bp of rate hikes this year, rising to a 3.25-3.5% range by the end of the year. Signs of a stagflationary outlook emerged in the economic forecast with upward revisions to inflation and unemployment forecasts and downward revisions to GDP growth forecasts. Powell said at the conference that a 75bp rate hike is not the norm and acknowledged the difficulties of a soft landing for the economy. After the U.S. CPI in May exceeded expectations for a record high, the market for this rate hike boost 75bp is expected to be sufficient, and the dot plot rate hike plan is more moderate than the previous market expectations, gold and silver rebounded sharply overnight. It is expected that the support below the precious metals is solid, the U.S. economy high slowdown recession risk rise, which will form a suppression of the real interest rate, it is recommended to pay attention to gold outside the 200-day average near the breakthrough, if the effective breakthrough can follow up more single.


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