September 13 spot gold trading alert: duel U.S. CPI! The dollar retraced to nearly two weeks low, gold prices pointed to the 55-day average?

By    13 Sep,2022

Tuesday (September 13) early Asian market, spot gold narrow oscillation, currently trading near $ 1722, the dollar continued to retreat softened to a two-week low, continued to provide gold prices with rebound momentum, short-term bullish signals increased. This trading day ushered in the heavyweight U.S. August CPI data, the market is generally expected to slow down the rate of inflation growth, may ease the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates after September, is expected to give gold prices to provide further upward momentum. But interest rate futures show that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in September rose to 93%, making gold bulls still have concerns.


In addition, investors also need to pay more attention to the Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical situation, the recent strengthening of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Russia may strengthen the attack, is expected to provide safe-haven support to gold prices.

David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said European Central Bank officials signaled further interest rate hikes to rein in inflation, which supported the euro and put pressure on the dollar, leading to some strength in the gold market to some extent.

In the short term, gold prices are still suppressed by the 21-day SMA, which is currently around 1731.20. If it can topple through this resistance, the market is expected to test the 55-day SMA around 1746.46 resistance. Before topping the 21-day SMA, you still need to beware of the risk of gold prices returning to the downtrend.

Fundamental major positive

[New York Fed survey: U.S. consumers' one-year inflation expectations fell further in August to the lowest since last October]

U.S. consumers' inflation expectations fell further in August as gasoline prices continued their sharp retreat from record highs set in June, a development that could be welcomed by Federal Reserve policymakers, who are weighing how big a rate hike to make next week.

The New York Fed's monthly survey of consumer expectations released Monday showed that consumers in August saw inflation expected to be 5.75 percent over the next 12 months, the lowest since October 2021, compared with an estimate of 6.2 percent in July. Consumers also expect an average price increase of 2.8% over the next three years, the lowest since the end of 2020, compared with an estimate of 3.2% in July.

In addition, consumers in August saw price increases over the next five years expected to be 2 percent, in line with the Federal Reserve's inflation target. Consumers' expectations of 2.35% in July had reached 3% at the beginning of the year, when the New York Fed first began asking about five-year inflation expectations.

These results may bring some comfort to Fed policymakers, who have been concerned that being at a 40-year high could change consumers' views on the persistence of current price shocks, which would make policymakers' job of controlling inflation more difficult.

The U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday will release data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. Economists forecast that the CPI is expected to rise 8.1% in the 12 months to August. 8.5% year-over-year jump in July.