Financial Futures, Metal Futures and Agricultural Futures Morning Commentary

By    17 May,2022

Stock index: economic data slightly weaker stock index wait and see.

Recently released economic data, economic data in April overall relatively weak. Subject to a complex and severe international environment and obvious domestic shocks, the new downward pressure on the economy further increased. in April, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 2,948.3 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year and down 0.69% sequentially. The national urban survey unemployment rate was 6.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. With fundamental data still under pressure, capital market funds remain cautious. Stock indexes are on hold.


Treasury bonds: lower currency rates Treasury bonds on hold.

Due to the impact of the disruption effect of the domestic economy, the microscopic subjects of the demand for credit reduced, the central bank announced an increase in social financing in April 9102 billion yuan, new RMB loans 645.4 billion yuan, M2 growth of 10.5%; the credit conduction of money is not smooth, the domestic money market interest rates are at ultra-low levels, the short-term central bank again large-scale investment efforts weakened, treasury bonds or fall back, turn to wait and see.

Zinc-Nickel: low inventory, zinc-nickel high level oscillation.

The main Shanghai zinc contract rose 1.5% on Monday evening compared to the previous trading day. Fundamentally, the high level of imported zinc concentrate processing fees shows that the supply of the foreign ore side tends to ease, while making European refinery profits to be repaired, refinery start-up rate or upward, the foreign supply tension will be eased. With the profit window of imported zinc concentrate opening and smelting profits exceeding domestic zinc concentrate, the supply side at home and abroad will relax. Domestic downstream starts are on the upside and demand is recovering. lME inventories are low and continue to move downward, while domestic inventories went into storage last week. Zinc prices are expected to shake at high levels in the short term and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. Risk point: European gas supply issues still need to be tracked.

Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.04% on Monday evening compared to the previous trading day. Fundamentals, nickel pig iron production is currently lucrative, with the end of the rainy season in the Philippines later, nickel pig iron production or upward. On the electrolytic nickel side, the import loss is reduced, continue to observe whether the profit window can be opened. On the demand side, stainless steel production growth rate declined, the terminal real estate demand is difficult to see an upturn. In the new energy sector, pure nickel dissolution nickel sulfate continues to lose money, nickel sulfate by logistics, cost problems year-on-year decline. Inventory, the global inventory continues to be low, there is still support for nickel prices. Nickel is now a mix of multiple and short factors, supply and demand is weak, but low inventories are still supportive of nickel prices. Short-term advice is to go short on the high side and pay attention to position control.