Russian orders via Ukraine dropped by another 11% Big Morgan: 20-40% premium for natural gas prices in the near future

Traders are worried about a further decline in Russian gas supplies through Ukraine. According to the operator of the Ukrainian gas network, Russian gas orders through Ukraine fell by 11% and also declined on Tuesday. Russia's Gazprom PJSC has repeatedly said it will deliver gas to Europe as requested by customers.

On Wednesday, European gas prices held steady, with the TTF benchmark price, the European gas price bellwether, edging up 0.79% to 103.01 euros/MWh as of press time.

It is understood that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has not in fact affected Russian gas shipments to Ukraine, and there have even been days when gas flows have exceeded the level before the conflict escalated, but the risk is increasing as the conflict between the two countries drags on. Russian President Vladimir Putin has even said that peace talks with Ukraine have reached an impasse.

In response, Morgan Stanley estimates a 20-40% premium in gas prices in the near term due to the risk of supply disruptions.