Brokerage morning meeting essence: U.S. stocks and bonds double kill or not end from the market bottom there is a long distance
CICC believes that the Fed's September meeting maintained a "hawkish" tone, in line with expectations. Interest rate hikes have not decelerated, and the dot plot shows that rates will rise further and will remain high for longer. We expect that rate hikes will bring more pain, the U.S. economy may enter a recession in early 2023, unemployment will probably rise. In the medium term, the high level of U.S. government debt to form a constraint on interest rate hikes, may eventually force the Fed to tolerate inflation. Despite Powell's attempts to avoid creating a "recession panic," the market may still be priced in the direction of a recession. We believe that this recession is more likely to be a "stagflationary" recession, which means that the U.S. "stock and bond double kill" or not over, we are still a long way from the "market bottom".
Centaline Securities: the market remains vulnerable to shocks, low valuation value prevails
Centaline Securities believes that, combined with the liquidity situation at home and abroad, there is a need for short-term adjustment of high-valued growth style stocks. From the historical experience, the calendar effect of 4 quarters shows that most years to finance, must consumer goods-based low-valued large-cap value stocks have a higher probability of prevailing. From the perspective of the inventory cycle, the economy is still in the recessionary phase of active destocking, and large-cap value stocks with solid earnings growth and low valuations have stronger defensive attributes. Overall, the market is likely to maintain a pattern of weak shocks in the fourth quarter, with value leading relative to growth. High-boom growth track experienced several months of momentum adjustment after the cost performance is better, the end of the year and early with the improvement of the domestic and international liquidity environment, may usher in better opportunities.
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