Brokerage morning meeting essence: U.S. stocks and bonds double kill or not end from the market bottom there is a long distance

By    22 Sep,2022

The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 635.9 billion yesterday, continuing to hit a new low in the year. By the close of trading, the Shanghai index fell 0.17%, the Shenzhen index fell 0.67% and the GEM index fell 1.49%. Northbound funds sold a net 3.06 billion yuan throughout the day yesterday. Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices shook sharply during the day, with the Dow down 1.7%, the S&P 500 down 1.71% and the Nasdaq down 1.8%.

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In today's brokerage morning meeting, Dongwu Securities believes that the level of U.S. real interest rates will turn significantly positive in 2023; CICC believes that interest rate hikes have not decelerated and the probability of a U.S. recession has risen; Centaline Securities believes that the market maintains weak shocks and low valuation values prevail.


Dongwu Securities: the level of U.S. real interest rates will turn significantly positive in 2023

Soochow Securities believes that the September meeting raised the policy interest rate level across the board for 2022 and 2023: another 125bp to 4.5% in 2022 and another 25bp to 4.75% in 2023 overall. Combined with the Fed's expectations for inflation, the U.S. real policy rate will turn significantly positive in 2023, and a recession will no longer be a sufficient condition for a policy shift. According to the Fed's forecast, PCE and core PCE will fall back to 2.8% and 3.1% in 2023, and according to our forecast, core CPI will also fall back to near 4% in 2023.


CIMB: Rate hikes not decelerating U.S. recession probability rising


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